The Kremlin’s recent statement about discussing Russian military bases with Syria’s new leadership underscores Russia’s strategic interests in the region and its ongoing influence over Syria. Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Russia has been a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing military and diplomatic support that has allowed Assad’s regime to regain control of most of the country. However, with the shifting political dynamics in the region, especially after Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League and the growing role of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Russia now faces a new phase in its relationship with Syria.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the key issues surrounding the Kremlin’s statements about negotiating the presence of Russian military bases in Syria:

1. Russian Military Presence in Syria

Russia’s military presence in Syria is a cornerstone of its strategy in the Middle East. Since 2015, Russia has operated airbases and naval facilities in Syria, providing significant military support to the Syrian government, including air strikes, intelligence, and military advisors. The two main Russian military installations in Syria are:

• Hmeymim Airbase: Located in western Syria, near the Mediterranean coast, Hmeymim is the primary Russian airbase in Syria. It serves as a hub for airstrikes in support of Syrian government forces, particularly against rebel groups and Islamic State (ISIS) fighters. The base is heavily guarded by Russian forces and has advanced radar and air-defense systems.
• Tartus Naval Base: Located on the Mediterranean coast, Tartus is Russia’s only naval facility in the Middle East. It provides Russia with a strategic foothold in the region and access to international waters. The port is used by the Russian Navy for repairs, resupply, and as a base for its operations in the region.

2. Shift in Syrian Leadership Dynamics

For years, Syria was largely isolated diplomatically, with Assad facing intense international pressure, especially from the West and Arab states. However, recent shifts have led to a reintegration of Syria into the Arab fold, notably with the country’s return to the Arab League in May 2023, after years of suspension. This diplomatic change has seen Syria moving towards normalizing relations with several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

With these developments, the nature of Syria’s political and diplomatic landscape is evolving. This shift could have significant implications for the presence and future of foreign military bases, especially Russian ones, in Syria. As regional powers, like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, recalibrate their stance towards Syria, Russia must ensure that its military presence remains secure under the new geopolitical conditions.

3. The Kremlin’s Statement on Discussing Bases

The Kremlin’s announcement about engaging with Syria’s “new rulers” regarding Russian military bases is a recognition of these changing dynamics. The phrase “new rulers” likely refers to Syria’s evolving political structure, which might include not only Bashar al-Assad but also the growing influence of regional and global powers who are interested in Syria’s future.

Key Considerations in the Kremlin’s Approach:

• Acknowledging Regional Changes: Russia is aware that its military presence in Syria could be affected by regional realignments. Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, may seek to mediate a new balance in Syria. While Assad remains in power, regional dynamics could lead to a greater push for sovereignty and self-determination in Syria, meaning Russia must manage its presence carefully to avoid tensions with Arab states or new Syrian leadership figures.
• Strategic Bargaining: Russia is likely to use the bases as leverage in negotiations with Syria’s new political leadership, securing long-term military access in exchange for political, economic, and security support. Russia might also offer military aid, economic recovery assistance, or investment in reconstruction to ensure that its bases remain operational and that its strategic goals are met.
• Maintaining Leverage Over Syria: Russia sees its military presence in Syria as a vital tool for projecting power in the Middle East, countering Western influence, and ensuring that its naval and air forces have access to the Mediterranean. Moscow is unlikely to relinquish control over these bases without significant guarantees regarding Syria’s alignment with Russian interests in the region.

4. Syria’s Geopolitical Position

While Bashar al-Assad continues to lead Syria, the changing diplomatic environment in the Arab world complicates the picture. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has long been a critic of Assad’s regime but has recently softened its stance. As a major regional power, Saudi Arabia’s views on foreign military bases in Syria will be critical, especially regarding Russia’s long-term military presence. Additionally, Turkey, which has its own military presence in parts of northern Syria, is also a key player in determining the balance of power in Syria and may play a role in negotiations over foreign military installations.

Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League means it is likely to pursue policies that seek a degree of autonomy from external influences, especially if it aims to regain full Arab support and restore its sovereignty. This will influence how Russia engages with the Syrian government and could lead to discussions about the long-term legitimacy of foreign military bases.

5. Russian Strategic Interests in the Middle East

Russia has been active in the Middle East for several decades and has used Syria as a key foothold in the region to challenge U.S. and NATO influence. The presence of Russian military forces in Syria gives Moscow strategic leverage not only in the Middle East but also in global geopolitics. The Mediterranean base allows Russia to exert influence over maritime traffic and energy routes, and the airbase allows for closer monitoring of U.S. and NATO activities in the region.

Moreover, Russia has used its military presence to establish itself as a key mediator in regional conflicts, offering its services as a power broker between rival factions in countries like Libya, Yemen, and Iraq. In this sense, Russian influence in Syria goes beyond military strategy—it is also about maintaining a role in shaping the broader political dynamics of the region.

6. Potential Challenges and Future Scenarios

• Syria’s Desire for Greater Sovereignty: While Russia has been a key supporter of Assad, Syria may wish to reduce its dependency on foreign powers as it seeks to rebuild and reassert its sovereignty. This could lead to tensions over Russian bases, especially if other regional powers push for a reduction in foreign military presence.
• Rising Pressure from Arab States: Arab countries, particularly those in the Gulf, may press Syria to distance itself from Russian influence in favor of more Arab-centered policies. This could involve limiting the presence of foreign military bases, including those of Russia, in exchange for economic assistance or regional security guarantees.
• U.S. and Western Response: The United States and its allies may push back against Russia’s efforts to solidify its military presence in Syria, citing concerns about the broader implications for regional stability. This could result in a complicated geopolitical tug-of-war between Russia, the U.S., and other actors in the region.

Conclusion

The Kremlin’s statement about discussing its military bases with Syria’s new leadership reflects the evolving political and diplomatic landscape in the region. While Russia’s military presence in Syria has been a key pillar of its influence, the changing nature of Syria’s relationship with the Arab world, as well as shifts in the regional power dynamics, mean that Russia will need to carefully navigate its engagement with the Syrian government. In the coming months, negotiations over the status of Russian military bases could be a key indicator of how Syria, and the broader Middle East, are likely to develop under new geopolitical realities.